Gambling on the 2018 Draft

Teams will gamble on their futures with these selections, and you can too!

byThree Point Stance Managing Editor Brandon Rush | @BrandonRush | Brandon@3PSMag.com

Last year was the first time that there were a widely available number of bets you could make on the NFL Draft, being the degenerate I am, I dove in with pretty good results if I do say so myself going 10-5 making 5.1 units of profit.

This year I am back to give you the skinny on some of the bets available along with my picks.

Here are just a few of the wagers available online (via VegasInsider.com), as well as my picks in bold. After 15 picks in 2017, I am bumping it up to 28 picks this year!

(Lines as of Monday night)

Total NFL Draft Round 1 trades (trades prior to Draft Day do not count)
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)

Betting the over means that 25% of those drafted on Thursday night are heading elsewhere, not buying it, give me the Under

Will Odell Beckham Jr. be included in an NFL Draft day trade?
Yes +350
No -600

No, If he IS dealt, it will be after the Draft and/or after Dez Bryant signs with a team

Total NFL Draft invitees to not be selected in Round 1
Over 2.5 (-150)
Under 2.5 (+120)

As we reported April 9th 22 players are attending the festivities in Dallas, of those 22 Justin Day only has 18 of them going in round one, a bit too tight of a number, I’m not picking this one but I would lean towards the over. 

Last player selected of NFL Draft invitees
Shaquem Griffin, LB, Central Florida +150
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU +500
Connor Williams, OT, Texas +800
Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa +1500
Taven Bryan, DT, Florida +1500
Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA +2500
Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State +2500
Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville +2500
Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama +2750
Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA +3000
Vita Vea, DT, Washington +3000
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville +3000
Derwin James, S, Florida State +4500
Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech +4500
Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia +4500
Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State +5700
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA +5700
Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State +5700
Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming +7500
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State +7500
Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama +7500
Sam Darnold, QB, USC +12000

Barring a Laremy Tunsil type incident, it is going to be Griffin. Honestly I’d be stunned if anyone takes him in the first two rounds, but I can guarantee you this, whoever does take him I will respect the hell out of and they are getting a damn fine ballplayer. 

Broadcast Props – per BetDSI.eu
NFL Draft No. 1 overall pick hugs his mom first
Yes -300
No +400

Almost a given, but I’m not picking.

NFL Draft No. 1 overall pick cries (before Goodell greeting)
Yes +200
No -300

No way, afterwords? Waterworks

NFL Draft Round 1 selection refuses to make contact with Roger Goodell
Yes +600
No -1000

No way, everyone wants the bro hug. 

Total times Odell Beckham Jr. is mentioned during NFL Draft Round 1
Over 2.5 (-115)
Under 2.5 (-115)

If a trade goes down, then this flies over the total. If the Giants trade out of #2 this flies over the total. Honestly, if the sun comes up on Thursday, this flies over the total. ONLY thing that could sway this is by which network they are grading it on. NFL Network/Fox joint broadcast or ESPN? Either way, OVER.

Length (hours) of NFL Draft Round 1
Over 4 (-115)
Under 4 (-115)

10 minutes per pick, 32 picks, if everyone takes the full allotment of time, this will take five hours and twenty minutes. How in the hell did we ever survive 15 minutes between picks?! OVER

Drake song is used as a walk-up song for any NFL Draft Rd 1 selection
Yes -200
No +150

Yes, someone will use “God’s Plan” even though its a garbage song. Go ahead and @ me. 

Future song is used as a walk-up song for any NFL Draft Rd 1 selection
Yes -250
No +200

HOW SALTY WOULD IT BE IF A PLAYER DRAFTED BY SEATTLE DOES THIS?! No, Future did just put out a track with DJ Esco a few weeks ago, but nah. 

Lil Wayne song is used as a walk-up song for any NFL Draft Rd 1 selection
Yes -200
No +150

Weezy still around? No.

Kendrick Lamar song is used as a walk-up song for any NFL Draft Rd 1 selection
Yes -300
No +240

Yes, I’ll be stunned if someone doesn’t

Cardi B song is used as a walk-up song for any NFL Draft Rd 1 selection
Yes -115
No -115

I hope no, I will SERIOUSLY judge whoever does. No Pick, I don’t want to bet on your choices if you are considering this.

Kodak Black song is used as a walk-up song for any NFL Draft Rd 1 selection
Yes -115
No -115

Yes, the kids love ’em some Kodak

Player Props – per BetDSI.eu
NFL Draft No. 1 overall selection
Sam Darnold -150
Josh Allen +210
Saquon Barkley +750
Josh Rosen +1500
Baker Mayfield +2500
Bradley Chubb +3500
Minkah Fitzpatrick +7500
Field +3300

Justin Day has Josh Allen going 1st overall, would be a nice payoff, but not enough value for me. No pick.

NFL Draft No. 2 overall selection
Josh Allen +200
Sam Darnold +350
Saquon Barkley +450
Bradley Chubb +600
Josh Rosen +650
Baker Mayfield +1000
Lamar Jackson +2500
Field +1000

Barkley here is a good pick for the Giants if they keep it. 

NFL Draft first quarterback selected
Sam Darnold -350
Josh Allen +350
Josh Rosen +900
Baker Mayfield +2700
Lamar Jackson +4500
Field +3500

No pick, value if you think Allen goes #1 overall though.

NFL Draft second running back selected
Derrius Guice -450
Sony Michel +550
Nick Chubb +875
Kerryon Johnson +1750
Ronald Jones II +2500
Rashaad Penny +5000
Saquon Barkley +7500
Field +1500

Either of the UGA backs here are great bets, HUGE fan of both Michel and Chubb, but I’m taking Sony Michel. Kid is going to be great.

Baker Mayfield is drafted by Cardinals as psychic predicted
Yes +800
No -1200

With Sam Bradford on the roster, if this happens, I am going to open a Cardinals fan store in Norman. No pick, not enough value.

Baker Mayfield draft position
Over 4 (-115)
Under 4 (-115)

Unless someone (BUFFALO I’M LOOKING AT YOU) gets desperate and trades up, I say Over. 

Lamar Jackson draft position
Over 17.5 (-115)
Under 17.5 (-115)

Most intriguing pick in the draft. Bill Belichick is sending a lot of smoke signals, but I don’t think the Pats pull the trigger on that one. As much as I want Lamar to go to a good spot, the good teams don’t need a quarterback. I am going to begrudgingly take the over, and hope I am wrong.

Shaquem Griffin draft position
Over 111.5 (-130)
Under 111.5 (+100)

PUT ON YOUR CONSPIRACY THEORY HATS KIDS, after the NFL did not initially invite Griffin to the Combine, Griffin is going to be the last of those invited to be selected. Here is where the conspiracy theory comes in. Thursday will garner huge ratings as expected, but Friday night for rounds two and three will need some intrigue. Just as I believe the NFL pulled some strings to get Micheal Sam drafted a few years ago, I believe the NFL will incentivise at team to draft him before the close of business Friday night. Storylines, the moment, guaranteeing Friday night ratings. Under. Griffin goes before the end of the third round.

Position Props – per BetDSI.eu
Total quarterbacks selected in NFL Draft Round 1
Over 4.5 (-115)
Under 4.5 (-115)

Allen, Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson, and maybe Rudolph. Over.

Total quarterbacks selected in NFL Draft top 10 picks
Over 3.5 (-115)
Under 3.5 (-115)

Too close to call, no pick.

Total quarterbacks selected in NFL Draft top 5 picks
Over 2.5 (-115)
Under 2.5 (-115)

Again, too close. No pick.

Total running backs selected in NFL Draft Round 1
Over 2.5 (-110)
Under 2.5 (-120)

Barkley, Guice, Michel. Over.

Total wide receivers selected in NFL Draft Round 1
Over 4.5 (-110)
Under 4.5 (-120)

Sutton, Chark (?), Ridley. Under.

Conference and Team Props
Total Alabama players selected in NFL Draft Round 1
Over 3.5 (-130)
Under 3.5 (+100)

Fitzpatrick, Ridley, Payne. Under.

Total LSU players selected in NFL Draft Round 1
Over 1 (-105)
Under 1 (-125)

If Chark is a first rounder, this goes over. No Pick but would lean over.

Total Georgia players selected in NFL Draft Round 1
Over 2.5 (-115)
Under 2.5 (-115)

Roquan Smith is a lock, Michel and Isaiah Wynn are possible, but i’d lean under. No Pick.

Total Ohio State players selected in NFL Draft Round 1
Over 2.5 (-115)
Under 2.5 (-115)

Under, Denzel Ward is in, but I don’t see two other potential first rounders.

Total SEC players selected in NFL Draft Round 1
Over 7 (-110)
Under 7 (-120)

Number too close, no pick.

Conference to have more players selected in NFL Draft Round 1
SEC -1.5 (-115)
Big Ten +1.5 (-115)

SEC. LOCK.

Conference to have more players selected in NFL Draft Round 1
SEC -2.5 (-115)
Pac-12 +2.5 (-115)

SEC. Bet.

Total players from non-FBS teams selected in NFL Draft
Over 22.5 (-115)
Under 22.5 (-115)

Under. Some talented FCS kids in this draft, but not en masse. 

Total North Dakota State players selected in NFL Draft
Over 1 (+100)
Under 1 (-130)

Two Bison players have entered the draft, both have to get picked to win. Take the under, worst case you push with just one.

Total South Dakota State players selected in NFL Draft
Over 1.5 (-115)
Under 1.5 (-115)

I actually like the over, Dallas Goedert is going to get picked, and after seeing Jake Weineke at the Combine, someone will take him late. 

Total Jacksonville State players selected in NFL Draft
Over 1.5 (-115)
Under 1.5 (-115)

Over, This program is grooming kids for the next level.

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