An Uneducated Take: Super Bowl
Chiefs & 49ers Hot Take Edition
It’s finally here. It’s Super Bowl week and we have a solid matchup. The 49ers power running and dominant pass rushing attack against the Chiefs instant strike offense. Who wins? I don’t know. There’s a lot of variables to go over, so let’s break it down.
Also, sorry about the not writing an article to cover the Conference Championship games. There wasn’t a whole lot to say. Both Tennessee and Green Bay were outmatched in those games and no need rehash games that were not that competitive in the second half; however, we can update the picks total for the year. I went 2-0 in the Conference Championship games, which brings the overall to 51-41.
So, how do we match these teams up. Let’s start with offensive numbers and work our way down the list and see where one team is the winner.
Chiefs: 281 yards per game for 30 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, allowed 25 sacks for a loss of 192 yards, and 3 lost fumbles.
49ers: 237 yards per game for 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, allowed 36 sacks for a loss of 237 yards, and 1 lost fumble.
Chiefs: 98 yards per game for 16 touchdowns and 3 lost fumbles
49ers: 144 yards per for 23 touchdowns and 3 lost fumbles
Offensive Third Down Effectiveness
Chiefs: Led the league with 47.6% conversion rate.
49ers: 45% conversion rate.
Chiefs: 107 penalties for a loss of 1,029 yards.
49ers: 105 penalties for a loss of 939 yards.
Chiefs: Averaging 28 points per game and 379 total yards per game
49ers: Averaging 29 points per game and 381 total yards per game.
No winner on this one. With only 2 yards and 1 point separating the averages, you may as well call it a tie on offense.
Chiefs: 221 yards per game, allowed 21 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 45 sacks for a loss of 338 yards, and 2 forced fumbles with 1 recovery.
49ers: 169 yards per game, allowed 23 touchdown, 12 interceptions, 48 sacks for a loss of 367 yards, and 7 forced fumbles with 4 recoveries.
Chiefs: 128 yards per game, 6 forced fumbles with 2 recoveries, and allowed 14 touchdowns.
49ers: 112 yards per game, 9 forced fumbles with 6 recoveries, and allowed 11 touchdowns.
Third Down Effectiveness
Chiefs: Offenses converted 37% of the time.
49ers: Offenses converted 33% of the time.
Chiefs: 116 penalties that gave up 844 yards
49ers: 116 penalties that up 957 yards
Chiefs: Allowed 19 points per game and 349 yards per game.
49ers: Allowed 19 points per game and 282 yards per game.
Record against Playoff Teams
Winner: Tie due to both teams having 5 wins.
Points For/Against Net with Common Opponents
Winner: It appears to be the Niners, but you do have to take into account that Mahomes did not play in the game against the Packers when they lost by 7 or the game against the Vikings where they won by 3. If we go strictly by Mahomes playing, their only common opponent would be the Ravens, and the Chiefs have the edge with a +5 to the Niners -3, but one could make the argument that the Ravens hadn’t found their stride yet at that time, and the 49ers played them when they were at their best. Also, that was a home game for the Chiefs and the Niners played in Baltimore. So, I’m going to leave this one as a tie.
Average Points Lost By
Chiefs: 5 points per game
49ers: 4 points per game
Winner: Essentially a tie due to it being within one score.
Chiefs: They average 20 yards on kickoff returns and 7 yards of punt returns with 7 fair catches. On field goals, they have a 90% success rate and are 16/19 from 40+ yards. On punting, their average is a net of 42 yards, pinned teams inside the 20 yard line 21 times, and allow an average of 5 yards per return.
49ers: They average 20 yards on kickoff returns and 8 yards on punt returns with 11 fair catches. On field goals, they have a 77% success rate and are 10/17 from 40+ yards. On punting, their average is a net of 45 yards, pinned teams inside the 20 yard line 23 times, and allow an average of 6 yards per return.
Winner: Chiefs due to field goal effectiveness.
Chiefs: 117-98-1 across 13 opponents
49ers: 116-115-1 across 14 opponents
Winner: Going by this, the Chiefs definitely faced what would seem to be a tougher schedule. But if we throw away the first half of the season when Mahomes was injured and just go the second half and playoffs, the Chiefs combined opponent records were 72-64 and they went 9-1 in those games. The 49ers combined opponent records were 85-49-1 and they went 7-3 in those games. Still can’t declare a victor in that. Yes, the Niners faced a tougher schedule down the stretch with 7 of those games against 5 playoff teams and went 5-2 in those games, while the Chiefs had 5 games against 4 playoff teams and went 4-1 in those games.
When you put all of this together, what does it even mean? Absolutely nothing. Offenses are more or less a tie, 49ers have the edge on defense, Chiefs win on special teams. They only have a few common opponents, but the Chiefs weren’t at full strength in most of those games, so that can’t be used.
If you go by how the teams have performed in the playoffs, the Chiefs are averaging 419 yards and 43 points per game. The 49ers are averaging 331 yards and 32 points per game. The Chiefs defense has allowed 368.5 yards and 27.5 points per game, while the Niners have allowed 252.5 yards and 15 points per game. Niners have a slight edge on net points with +17 to the Chiefs +15.5. Kansas City on special teams are getting a net of 32 yards per punt, while the 49ers are averaging a 44 yard net on punts. Field goals are largely a non factor here as the Niners are 5 for 5 while the Chiefs have only attempted 1. The turnovers +/- in the playoffs has the 49ers with the edge at +5 to the Chiefs +1.
So, after all of that, who wins this game? Fuck if I know. This might be one of the most evenly matched Super Bowls in history. If we break it down simply, we have a dominating defense against a high flying offense. Defense tends to have the edge as we saw with Seahawks-Broncos, Broncos-Panthers, Giants-Patriots, Eagles-Patriots, or Patriots-Falcons.
Considering this article is called “An Uneducated Take,” I’ve decided to comb through Twitter and find truly awful takes out there.
Skip saying this makes me wish my team would lose. It’s just awful.
What the fuck?
Sure, it’s hyperbole. It doesn’t stop it from being awful.
Consider the Chiefs odds of winning the Super Bowl during preseason were 6-1, quite a lot of people.
What the fuck are you trying to say in regards to Jimmy G breaking Romo’s college records? How does that even count as something that relates to how he will perform in the Super Bowl?
This is wishful Niner hope in regards to Frank Clark. Just a bit ridiculous.
I’m a little confused as to why this person is mad at Kaep. He did everything he could to win against the Ravens. Harbaugh anger is justified. Still will never understand 3 straight passes inside the 5 yard line when you are a power running team and the Ravens defense was gassed. Also, if Rihanna has any acne, her Fenty Beauty would still be strong.
I don’t even know what to say to this one.
And last, but certainly not least. This one comes courtesy of Three Point Stance Magazine’s own Brandon Rush. I can’t say I blame him. I felt the same way at the time.
This is perhaps the most important information that has come out with a Super Bowl tag on Twitter. This person deserves our respect and must be celebrated!
So, after going through the stats, social media, and my own neuroses, I am still no closer to picking a winner. So, if you consider all of that, just go with what you want to have happen and taper down the expectations. I say the 49ers win in a very close game. That will most likely kill me emotionally. I would much rather see blowout from either the Chiefs or the Niners because a close game just leaves you feeling spent. If the Niners win a close one, the high from that victory is intense. If the Chiefs win a close one, I will spend the entire offseason thinking. “We were just one play away” and it’ll drive me mad. Blowouts on the other hand, there’s no questions. One team was clearly better and there wasn’t much you could do about it.
So, like I said, I’m taking the 49ers to win. Join us next week when I either declare myself a genius or I wallow in the abyss of melancholy.
P.S. Don’t think I didn’t notice Bill O’Brien not get fired but get promoted to GM. I got some words for that next week!